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Thursday, December 25, 2025
What truly matters in a Transition Economy?
What Truly Matters in a Transition Economy
In the transition economy, various solutions are promoted under different labels, including CCS, CCU, hydrogen pathways, and renewable power. However, complexity should not distract from the first non-negotiable: the system must achieve genuine net-zero emissions. Not relative reductions, not offsets masking ongoing releases, but verifiable zero emissions when the entire system is accounted for. If emissions persist, even at lower levels, the problem is deferred, not solved.
The second requirement is progressive fossil fuel reduction. Capturing carbon while continuing indefinite fossil fuel extraction is not a transition—it is an extension of the existing system. A credible pathway must show declining fossil inputs over time and their replacement with sustainable energy sources. Hydrogen—renewable or non‑renewable—and renewable power are acceptable only insofar as they support this trajectory while maintaining net‑zero outcomes.
The third and most overlooked criterion is a rigorous definition of the system and its surroundings. Whenever a carbonaceous fuel is involved, carbon accounting is only meaningful if system boundaries are explicit. Removing carbon from the system but releasing it into the surroundings—atmosphere, land, or ocean—does not constitute neutrality. Only closed, traceable carbon loops or verified permanent removal justify net‑zero claims. The transition economy does not need more labels; it needs boundary clarity.
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