Defossilisation: Correcting the Structural Error in the Energy Transition

Defossilisation: Correcting the Structural Error in the Energy Transition Author: Ahilan Raman Managing Director Clean Energy and Water Technologies Pty Ltd (CEWT) ABN 61 691 320 028 Executive Summary Global energy transition strategies have predominantly focused on decarbonisation — reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy produced. While necessary, this approach does not correct the structural flaw embedded in the current energy architecture: continued reliance on new fossil carbon extraction. This white paper introduces defossilisation as a systems-level framework that eliminates new fossil carbon input after system start-up. It proposes a closed industrial carbon loop powered by renewable energy, where carbon functions as a recyclable carrier rather than a one-way emission stream. Defossilisation complements renewable deployment by addressing firm power requirements, industrial thermodynamics, and long-term carbon balance integrity. 1. The Structural Framing Problem For over three decades, climate strategy has been framed primarily as a carbon emissions problem. Policy tools such as carbon pricing, emissions trading schemes, carbon capture and storage, renewable subsidies, and efficiency improvements reduce intensity, but do not eliminate fossil carbon input. The prevailing architecture remains linear: Extraction → Combustion → Emission → Mitigation. This structure inherently requires continuous management and fails to redefine the system boundary. 2. Carbon in Context Carbon exists in two fundamentally different states: geological carbon (coal, oil, gas) and active-cycle carbon (atmosphere, biomass, ocean). Disruption arises when geological carbon is transferred into the active cycle at industrial scale. Decarbonisation reduces the rate of transfer. Defossilisation eliminates the transfer. 3. Decarbonisation vs Defossilisation Decarbonisation focuses on reducing emissions intensity. Defossilisation focuses on eliminating new fossil carbon input. An economy can decarbonise while still extracting fossil carbon. Structural equilibrium requires eliminating fossil carbon feedstock. 4. The System–Surroundings Boundary Natural systems operate in closed loops. Industrial systems operate linearly. Correcting this requires renewable primary energy input, closed industrial carbon circulation, and elimination of new fossil carbon injection. 5. Industrial Reality: The Firm Power Imperative Heavy industry and digital infrastructure require continuous power, high load factors, grid stability, and thermodynamic reliability. Intermittent generation alone cannot meet these requirements without system redesign. 6. Closed Carbon Architecture In a defossilised system, renewable electricity becomes the primary energy source. Hydrogen acts as the energy vector. Carbon dioxide is captured and reused as a process feedstock. No new fossil carbon enters the system after commissioning. 7. Economic Implications Defossilised systems reduce exposure to carbon price volatility, regulatory tightening, trade barriers, fossil fuel supply risk, and asset stranding. 8. Policy Alignment Defossilisation supports net-zero commitments, renewable integration strategies, hydrogen deployment, carbon pricing frameworks, and industrial decarbonisation roadmaps under a coherent structural objective. 9. The Next Phase of the Energy Transition The first phase focused on renewable deployment. The second must focus on system integration, firm industrial energy, and closed carbon loops. 10. Conclusion Carbon is not inherently problematic. Fossil carbon dependency is. Defossilisation represents a design principle: no new fossil carbon input after start-up. The energy transition will mature when architecture replaces patchwork. About CEWT Clean Energy and Water Technologies Pty Ltd (CEWT) develops integrated energy system architectures focused on renewable-powered closed carbon cycles and firm industrial energy delivery.